Is Europe Ready for War? Why Brussels Is Racing Against Time
After Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, rising pressure from the United States, and increasingly direct warnings from military leaders, the European Union is confronting a reality that once seemed unthinkable: the need to strengthen its own defence readiness.
For years, Europe relied on diplomacy, economic integration, and strong transatlantic alliances to maintain peace and stability. Today, that confidence is beginning to fade. With the war in Ukraine continuing and geopolitical tensions increasing, European leaders are moving quickly to reinforce the continent’s military, industrial, and strategic capabilities.
A Continent Under Pressure
The growing sense of urgency did not appear overnight. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine shattered long-standing assumptions about security in Europe. At the same time, signals from Washington have become clearer: Europe must take on greater responsibility for its own defence.
European leaders now face a difficult balance—deterring potential aggression while maintaining unity among EU member states.
In December, EU leaders agreed on a €90 billion loan package to support Ukraine. Meanwhile, Ursula von der Leyen announced several defence initiatives designed to strengthen Europe’s deterrence capacity by 2030.
At the same time, global rhetoric has intensified. Vladimir Putin warned that Russia was prepared to continue fighting if necessary and suggested that diplomatic options were narrowing. Around the same period, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte issued a stark warning, stating that NATO could face a potential attack within the next five years.
Germany’s defence minister Boris Pistorius also expressed concern, suggesting that Europe may have experienced its “last summer of peace.”
Together, these warnings highlight a growing belief among security officials that the threat of conflict in Europe is no longer purely hypothetical.
Are Europeans Personally Ready for War?
While political leaders are increasingly focused on defence preparation, public opinion across Europe tells a different story.
A Euronews poll asked nearly 10,000 people whether they would be willing to fight for the EU’s borders. The results showed that 75% of respondents said they would not. Only 19% said they would be willing to fight, while 8% remained uncertain.
These findings reveal a clear gap between government strategies and public sentiment.
Surveys also show that fear of Russian aggression is strongest in countries closest to Russia. A YouGov poll found that Russian military pressure is considered one of the top threats by 51% of people in Poland, 57% in Lithuania, and 62% in Denmark.
Across Europe, concerns about armed conflict now rank alongside economic instability and energy security as major public worries.
Eastern Europe Takes the Lead
Although the threat is widely acknowledged, the most visible preparations are taking place in Eastern Europe.
Countries such as Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Poland, Finland, and Sweden have begun preparing their populations both practically and psychologically for potential crises.
Lithuania has started developing “drone walls” along its borders and restoring wetlands as natural defensive barriers. Public awareness campaigns and civil defence exercises are becoming increasingly common.
Latvia has introduced mandatory national defence education in schools, while Poland has constructed new border barriers with Belarus and expanded security education programs. Some Polish secondary schools now include firearm safety instruction.
Meanwhile, Finland, Estonia, and Sweden have revived Cold War–era civil defence strategies. Sweden even distributed updated “If Crisis or War Comes” brochures to every household in 2025, explaining how citizens should respond during emergencies such as power outages, evacuations, or military conflict.
Search trends also reflect growing concern. In countries near Russia, online searches for questions like “Where is my nearest shelter?” and “What should I pack for evacuation?” have significantly increased.
What Brussels Is Doing Behind the Scenes
While national governments are taking action, Brussels is coordinating a broader European effort.
EU defence spending exceeded €300 billion in 2024. Under the proposed 2028–2034 EU budget, an additional €131 billion has been allocated for aerospace and defence—five times more than in the previous budget cycle.
At the centre of the strategy is Readiness 2030, a plan supported by all 27 EU member states. Its goals are designed to improve military mobility across Europe.
The plan aims to allow troops and equipment to move across EU borders within three days during peacetime and within six hours during emergencies. To achieve this, the EU is developing a “Military Schengen” system that would eliminate bureaucratic delays.
Approximately 500 pieces of critical infrastructure—including bridges, tunnels, ports, and railway networks—are being identified and upgraded to support heavy military equipment. The total cost is estimated to range between €70 billion and €100 billion.
ReArm Europe: Strengthening the Defence Industry
In 2025, Brussels launched ReArm Europe, a major initiative designed to coordinate defence investment and expand Europe’s military-industrial capacity.
For decades, Europe’s defence sector has struggled with fragmentation, with multiple national systems and incompatible equipment. ReArm Europe aims to streamline cooperation and reduce duplication.
Two major programs form the foundation of this effort:
- EDIP (European Defence Industry Programme) – €1.5 billion dedicated to joint research, development, and production projects involving multiple EU countries.
- SAFE (Strategic Armament Financing Envelope) – a €150 billion loan facility that allows countries to jointly purchase military equipment more quickly and at lower cost.
These programs encourage European nations to collaborate, negotiate better procurement deals, and ensure their defence systems can operate together effectively.
Growing Pressure From the United States
Pressure from Washington has also intensified.
A U.S. national security strategy released on December 4 described Europe as a weakened partner and reaffirmed an “America First” approach—echoing previous criticism from former U.S. President Donald Trump regarding Europe’s defence spending.
The United States expects Europe to take responsibility for most of NATO’s conventional defence by 2027, a timeline many European officials believe is overly ambitious.
At the 2025 NATO summit in The Hague, member states agreed to aim for defence spending equal to 5% of GDP by 2035. However, most European countries remain well below that target.
These developments have raised concerns in Brussels that Europe may not always be able to rely on unconditional U.S. security guarantees.
Europe Responds
European leaders have responded firmly to these concerns.
EU Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis called for greater European independence in defence matters. Meanwhile, European Council President António Costa and EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas rejected suggestions that the United States should influence Europe’s political decisions.
They emphasized that strong alliances must still respect democratic independence.
The exchange highlights a growing divide between Europe and the United States regarding long-term security strategy.
A Race Against Time
Despite increased spending and political momentum, experts warn that funding alone cannot solve Europe’s defence challenges.
Decades of underinvestment have left deep structural issues, including slow procurement processes, regulatory barriers, and fragmented defence industries.
Early data from the EU’s Defence Industrial Readiness Survey confirms these problems, with delays and limited production capacity continuing to affect the sector.
Although Brussels has begun introducing regulatory reforms and flexible funding rules, rebuilding Europe’s defence capabilities will take time.
What Comes Next?
Interest in Europe’s new defence initiatives is already high. The SAFE program alone has received requests for nearly 700 projects, with close to €50 billion sought for systems such as air defence, missiles, drones, ammunition, and naval equipment.
Up to €22.5 billion in early funding could be released by 2026.
Yet timelines remain tight. Europe must modernize its defence industry, maintain support for Ukraine, and respond to increasingly serious warnings from NATO and global security leaders.
As European officials now acknowledge, the debate has shifted.
The question is no longer whether Europe should strengthen its defence.
The real question is whether it can do so quickly enough.